Tuesday, 10 March 2015

Macro look at the 'Attacks' in the Premier League

As we come down the stretch, I wanted to take a quick look at the shots and goals numbers for & against. Lots of times we only see the Shot Ratios (i.e. TSR, SoTR, GF%) posted but they do not give us the actual quantity of shots each team has taken and given up.

I know scatter plots can be tough to read/decipher but, for me, this is the best way to show where teams stand.

*This is the 1st post of 3 (time permitting). This one will focus on Attack. The next will be Defense, followed by combining Attack/Defense and looking at Shot/Goal Difference.


Shots on Target For vs Total Shots For

Who had QPR leading Man United in 'total shots for' before the season started? Problem for QPR is that they just do not hit the target. Some of this will be down to poor shot selection and some down to being unlucky but I think we can make a guess that QPR (and Stoke) start hitting the target at a more normal rate over the last 10 matches.

Chelsea continue to lead in 'shots on target' but Man City has made gains in recent weeks. I have been expecting Chelsea to regress to a normal rate of putting shots on net but this has not happened. Their ability to get into dangerous shooting areas has been very good. As per Objective Football, Chelsea leads the league in 'minutes played while leading' by a lot of minutes and this is probably driving the disparity between shots and shots on target.

Man United and Southampton really do not have 'Top 4' shot numbers. Meanwhile Spurs seem to be moving on up in the shots for department.

Goals For vs Shots on Target For

Liverpool really should have more goals, at this point, based on their shots on target. Kind of surprising given their solid run of form over last couple months. I cannot really see any reason why the goals will dry up, other than injuries.

Aston Villa cannot score goals this season (~18% G/SoT). Can 'Tactics Tim' simply say 'Benteke, score me some goals'? Worked for Mr. Burns on the Simpsons Episode 'Homer at the Bat' (Could not, for the life of me, find a video clip):

Burns: You, Strawberry, hit a home run.
Strawberry: Okay, skip.
(hits a home run)
Burns: Ha-ha! I told him to do that.
Smithers: Brilliant strategy sir.

If Villa start scoring it will be more to do with regression rather than Sherwood waving his magic wand. I am sure the media will see it this way, as well.

I mentioned, above, that we could make a guess that Stoke will start hitting the target more often. We can also make an assumption that they will score at a slower rate. Now this does not mean they will not score. It just means that they will score at more normal rate. Essentially, the increase in shots on target will offset the decline in scoring %. Confused? Me too.

Man, stats can be Hard to Expain...


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