Thursday, 19 February 2015

Goals Difference vs Score Adjusted Shots on Target Ratio

I have taken @objectivefooty 's tracking of Score Adjusted Shots on Target Ratio in the Premier League to date (25gms) and compared to Goal Difference.

Would you rather be Man United or Liverpool going into the last 13 matches?

R-squared of .887

Goals Against vs. Shots on Target Against (25 games)

Here is a viz created using Tableau:

Man United and West Ham are crazy outliers with very high save%'s keeping their seasons from being much worse.

On the other side, we have Everton and Newcastle who are serious outliers with poor save %'s. For Everton, they could very easily be up around 6th position with a league average save %.

Expect these 4 teams to all  regress towards the league average save % of approximately 68%.