14-15 EPL 11v11 Shot Metric Table

Team	Mins	TSR%	SoTR	Sh%	Sv%	PDO
Arsenal	2813	59.0%	62.2%	33.7%	72.2%	105.9%
Aston Villa	2798	45.1%	42.2%	24.5%	69.4%	93.9%
Burnley	2891	43.0%	40.8%	23.1%	67.5%	90.7%
Chelsea	2681	57.2%	63.3%	35.9%	77.3%	113.2%
Crystal Palace	2896	47.3%	50.0%	35.0%	65.0%	100.0%
Everton	2870	47.7%	54.7%	29.6%	62.5%	92.1%
Hull	2633	45.4%	46.2%	26.5%	67.2%	93.7%
Leicester	2815	42.9%	41.1%	30.6%	68.6%	99.2%
Liverpool	2798	58.4%	59.0%	27.8%	69.1%	96.9%
Man City	2768	63.5%	62.7%	34.7%	67.3%	102.0%
Man United	2785	57.3%	56.6%	37.9%	74.8%	112.7%
Newcastle	2918	50.6%	47.2%	28.8%	60.6%	89.4%
QPR	2851	47.0%	41.6%	27.8%	68.4%	96.1%
Southampton	2871	56.2%	61.3%	31.2%	75.3%	106.5%
Stoke	2876	51.7%	45.5%	36.0%	66.7%	102.7%
Sunderland	2761	39.9%	38.4%	24.5%	70.7%	95.2%
Swansea	2829	45.0%	45.3%	29.0%	73.3%	102.4%
Tottenham	2842	51.8%	50.3%	32.5%	69.1%	101.6%
West Brom	2747	47.7%	45.6%	28.4%	67.7%	96.1%
West Ham	2818	44.5%	45.4%	31.3%	72.7%	104.0%

Macro look at combined Attack/Defense in the Premier League

As we come down the stretch, I wanted to take a quick look at the shots and goals numbers for & against. Lots of times we only see the Shot Ratios (i.e. TSR, SoTR, GF%) posted but they do not give us the actual quantity of shots each team has taken and given up.

I know scatter plots can be tough to read/decipher but, for me, this is the best way to show where teams stand.

*This is the 3rd post of 3. The 1st post covered Attack and the 2nd looked at the Defense. 

Attack & Defense Combined

Shots on Target Differential vs Total Shots Differential

We can see that their is a clear top 5 teams with Man United lagging behind. The race for the 3rd and 4th Champions League spots looks like they could come down to the last game of the season.  Extremely tight.

Meanwhile, Sunderland are just abysmal. How they are not sitting at the bottom table is fascinating.

Everton, stand out as outliers, along with Chelsea, in over performance of shots on target. Chelsea are thriving off this, while Everton haven't been able to capitalize.

Goal Differential vs Shots on Target Differential

*If you are not familiar with PDO please check out the Glossary along the top of the page.

Analytics tell us to expect Man United's PDO to regress toward the mean (100). Many, mistakenly, think that if a team carries a very high PDO for a lengthy period of time that it will, in turn, have a game or multiple games where the team has a terribly low PDO. This is gamblers fallacy which many confuse with regression to the mean. 38 games is a small sample and good/bad fortune can last over the course of the season (or even more), even if it is unlikely. For example, Man City finished last season with ~112.0 PDO.

**Just for clarification, I am not saying Man United's PDO will stay high (It could fall off a cliff, for all I know). I am just trying to clarify that over the last 10 games (for all teams) anything can happen. The previous 28 games do not determine the PDO of game 29. Much like flipping a coin and getting heads 10 times in a row doesn't mean the odds of getting tails is higher on the 11th flip**


That is the end of this short 'series' of blogs. Hopefully, you found it somewhat informative and/or made you think about things a little different.

Cheers,

Clarke
Follow @footyinthecloud

 

Goals Against vs. Shots on Target Against (25 games)

Here is a viz created using Tableau:

Man United and West Ham are crazy outliers with very high save%'s keeping their seasons from being much worse.

On the other side, we have Everton and Newcastle who are serious outliers with poor save %'s. For Everton, they could very easily be up around 6th position with a league average save %.

Expect these 4 teams to all  regress towards the league average save % of approximately 68%.