14-15 EPL 11v11 Shot Metric Table

Team	Mins	TSR%	SoTR	Sh%	Sv%	PDO
Arsenal	2813	59.0%	62.2%	33.7%	72.2%	105.9%
Aston Villa	2798	45.1%	42.2%	24.5%	69.4%	93.9%
Burnley	2891	43.0%	40.8%	23.1%	67.5%	90.7%
Chelsea	2681	57.2%	63.3%	35.9%	77.3%	113.2%
Crystal Palace	2896	47.3%	50.0%	35.0%	65.0%	100.0%
Everton	2870	47.7%	54.7%	29.6%	62.5%	92.1%
Hull	2633	45.4%	46.2%	26.5%	67.2%	93.7%
Leicester	2815	42.9%	41.1%	30.6%	68.6%	99.2%
Liverpool	2798	58.4%	59.0%	27.8%	69.1%	96.9%
Man City	2768	63.5%	62.7%	34.7%	67.3%	102.0%
Man United	2785	57.3%	56.6%	37.9%	74.8%	112.7%
Newcastle	2918	50.6%	47.2%	28.8%	60.6%	89.4%
QPR	2851	47.0%	41.6%	27.8%	68.4%	96.1%
Southampton	2871	56.2%	61.3%	31.2%	75.3%	106.5%
Stoke	2876	51.7%	45.5%	36.0%	66.7%	102.7%
Sunderland	2761	39.9%	38.4%	24.5%	70.7%	95.2%
Swansea	2829	45.0%	45.3%	29.0%	73.3%	102.4%
Tottenham	2842	51.8%	50.3%	32.5%	69.1%	101.6%
West Brom	2747	47.7%	45.6%	28.4%	67.7%	96.1%
West Ham	2818	44.5%	45.4%	31.3%	72.7%	104.0%

Macro look at combined Attack/Defense in the Premier League

As we come down the stretch, I wanted to take a quick look at the shots and goals numbers for & against. Lots of times we only see the Shot Ratios (i.e. TSR, SoTR, GF%) posted but they do not give us the actual quantity of shots each team has taken and given up.

I know scatter plots can be tough to read/decipher but, for me, this is the best way to show where teams stand.

*This is the 3rd post of 3. The 1st post covered Attack and the 2nd looked at the Defense. 

Attack & Defense Combined

Shots on Target Differential vs Total Shots Differential

We can see that their is a clear top 5 teams with Man United lagging behind. The race for the 3rd and 4th Champions League spots looks like they could come down to the last game of the season.  Extremely tight.

Meanwhile, Sunderland are just abysmal. How they are not sitting at the bottom table is fascinating.

Everton, stand out as outliers, along with Chelsea, in over performance of shots on target. Chelsea are thriving off this, while Everton haven't been able to capitalize.

Goal Differential vs Shots on Target Differential

*If you are not familiar with PDO please check out the Glossary along the top of the page.

Analytics tell us to expect Man United's PDO to regress toward the mean (100). Many, mistakenly, think that if a team carries a very high PDO for a lengthy period of time that it will, in turn, have a game or multiple games where the team has a terribly low PDO. This is gamblers fallacy which many confuse with regression to the mean. 38 games is a small sample and good/bad fortune can last over the course of the season (or even more), even if it is unlikely. For example, Man City finished last season with ~112.0 PDO.

**Just for clarification, I am not saying Man United's PDO will stay high (It could fall off a cliff, for all I know). I am just trying to clarify that over the last 10 games (for all teams) anything can happen. The previous 28 games do not determine the PDO of game 29. Much like flipping a coin and getting heads 10 times in a row doesn't mean the odds of getting tails is higher on the 11th flip**


That is the end of this short 'series' of blogs. Hopefully, you found it somewhat informative and/or made you think about things a little different.

Cheers,

Clarke
Follow @footyinthecloud

 

Macro look at the 'Defenses' in the Premier League

As we come down the stretch, I wanted to take a quick look at the shots and goals numbers for & against. Lots of times we only see the Shot Ratios (i.e. TSR, SoTR, GF%) posted but they do not give us the actual quantity of shots each team has taken and given up.

I know scatter plots can be tough to read/decipher but, for me, this is the best way to show where teams stand.

*This is the 2nd post of 3 (time permitting). The 1st post covered Attack, this one will focus on Defense and the last one will combine Attack/Defense by looking at Shot/Goal Difference.

Defense

Shots on Target Against vs Total Shots Against

Southampton! Least amount of 'shots against' and 'shots on target against'. The defensive side of the ball is why they have such high TSR and SoTR's. What they have done, defensively, is both sustainable and amazing. Soton's 'money spent vs. performance' compared to the two oil-financed clubs is very 'Oakland Athletics' like.

Manchester United and Spurs are giving up far to many shots on target. United do a good job of suppressing shots but when they do get through they seem to be hitting the target (and as we will see below, hitting De Gea). Spurs on the other hand have been quite easy to play against giving up a lot of shots coupled with a high rate on target.  

In the attacking piece I didn't mention Everton because their was nothing 'out of the ordinary' with their numbers. Now, defensively, they are having an interesting season. Martinez has been heavily scrutinized for how he sets up his team and that is fair given that they sit 12th in total shots against.
They have a lot fewer 'shots on target against' than would be expected and normally this would be a good thing, even if it is a bit fortunate, but this has not led to success. We look below as to why?

Goals Against vs Shots on Target Against

Goalkeepers are voodoo. Ask Everton. Pretty much, all of Everton's under performance in the league is down to their inability to stop the ball.  They sit dead last in save % (table below), while last season they were 2nd. Everton have been both, slightly lucky (6th lowest shots on target) and really unlucky (league low save %) this season. Both these metrics should regress but it is too late for it to matter, this season. 

On the opposite end of the voodoo spectrum, we have Man United, who are getting away with it, this season. 8th in shots on target against and De Gea bailing them out. This United team are riding the variance of their goalkeeper. Will it last? Crazier things have happened.

Another notable outlier is Sunderland. Pantillimon, since coming in to the side, has been the saviour. His performance is the reason they are not buried in the relegation places.

Here is the save% of each team (sortable).

Team	Save %
Arsenal	70.0
Aston Villa	69.1
Burnley	66.9
Chelsea	72.8
Crystal Palace	64.2
Everton	59.0
Hull	68.1
Leicester	65.4
Liverpool	68.4
Man City	69.0
Man United	75.9
Newcastle	61.6
QPR	69.2
Southampton	73.7
Stoke	64.6
Sunderland	73.8
Swansea	72.6
Tottenham	70.5
West Brom	69.5
West Ham	74.2
Average	69.0

* compiled using footstats.co.uk

Clarke 

Follow @footyinthecloud

 

Goals Against vs. Shots on Target Against (25 games)

Here is a viz created using Tableau:

Man United and West Ham are crazy outliers with very high save%'s keeping their seasons from being much worse.

On the other side, we have Everton and Newcastle who are serious outliers with poor save %'s. For Everton, they could very easily be up around 6th position with a league average save %.

Expect these 4 teams to all  regress towards the league average save % of approximately 68%.