End of Season Look at Schedule Adjusted Total Shots

This is a method designed by Micah McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) for weighting schedule strength in the National Hockey League (NHL) using Total Shots (Corsi).  The method is described in full detail in the following link.  https://hockeygraphsdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/scheduleadjust.pdf

I was interested in how it would look using raw Total Shots For/Against from the Premier League.

End of season notes:

With the Premiership playing a balanced schedule (unlike North American sports leagues), I didn't know if Schedule Adjusted TSR would be that much different from raw TSR. Turns out, that in the end, Schedule Adjusting did little to alter raw TSR.

It is a weird year for in-season repeatability of raw TSR. R-squared of '1st half vs 2nd half' is way down to ~0.40 this year. A vast decline of the previous 5 season avg (~0.75).  TSR still maintained a high correlation to Goal Difference (r squared of ~.71).

Schedule Adjusted TSR did poorer in predicting itself than raw TSR. R-squared of ~0.37. While, versus Goal Difference, it slightly edges raw TSR, with a r squared of ~.72.

Given these results, I will probably not track Sched Adj Total Shots next season. Given the small value it adds to explaining goal difference I do not think it is worth the time I spend inputing the data.

I am glad I did it but I will appreciate using the extra 1 1/2 hrs per week it took to track and organize, on other things :)

Cheers,
Clarke

Here are the Schedule Adjusted TSR results (compiled using www.whoscored.com):

Season Totals (Matches 1-38)

Team	Total Shots For	Total Shots Against	TSR%	Schedule Adjusted Shots For	Schedule Adjusted Shots Against	Sched Adj TSR%	Dif
Arsenal	608	406	60.0%	600	410	59.4%	-0.6%
Aston Villa	415	481	46.3%	410	475	46.3%	-0.0%
Burnley	430	591	42.1%	439	590	42.7%	0.5%
Chelsea	564	415	57.6%	552	421	56.7%	-0.9%
Crystal Palace	440	526	45.5%	446	525	45.9%	0.4%
Everton	483	503	49.0%	482	499	49.1%	0.2%
Hull	434	503	46.3%	436	496	46.8%	0.4%
Leicester	457	557	45.1%	459	554	45.3%	0.2%
Liverpool	584	419	58.2%	581	430	57.5%	-0.8%
Man City	670	384	63.6%	658	392	62.7%	-0.9%
Man United	513	386	57.1%	506	387	56.6%	-0.4%
Newcastle	466	442	51.3%	470	448	51.2%	-0.1%
QPR	534	621	46.2%	545	633	46.2%	0.0%
Southampton	510	384	57.0%	505	386	56.7%	-0.3%
Stoke	503	455	52.5%	501	454	52.4%	-0.1%
Sunderland	409	625	39.6%	420	612	40.7%	1.1%
Swansea	427	551	43.7%	431	542	44.3%	0.7%
Tottenham	526	489	51.8%	530	495	51.7%	-0.1%
West Brom	413	546	43.1%	414	534	43.7%	0.6%
West Ham	487	589	45.3%	490	589	45.4%	0.1%

2nd half of Season (Matches 20-38)

Team	Total Shots For	Total Shots Against	TSR%	Schedule Adjusted Shots For	Schedule Adjusted Shots Against	Sched Adj TSR%	Dif
Arsenal	289	214	57.5%	282	218	56.4%	-1.0%
Aston Villa	226	208	52.1%	224	206	52.1%	0.0%
Burnley	215	287	42.8%	222	286	43.7%	0.9%
Chelsea	255	222	53.5%	253	227	52.7%	-0.8%
Crystal Palace	236	270	46.6%	240	268	47.2%	0.6%
Everton	236	256	48.0%	234	253	48.1%	0.1%
Hull	240	217	52.5%	241	216	52.7%	0.2%
Leicester	246	256	49.0%	246	255	49.1%	0.1%
Liverpool	294	199	59.6%	285	203	58.4%	-1.2%
Man City	350	182	65.8%	335	184	64.6%	-1.2%
Man United	262	177	59.7%	255	181	58.5%	-1.2%
Newcastle	230	209	52.4%	232	213	52.2%	-0.2%
QPR	264	328	44.6%	271	336	44.6%	0.0%
Southampton	256	211	54.8%	257	214	54.6%	-0.2%
Stoke	249	211	54.1%	252	216	53.9%	-0.3%
Sunderland	195	347	36.0%	202	335	37.6%	1.6%
Swansea	218	281	43.7%	222	275	44.6%	0.9%
Tottenham	274	251	52.2%	277	255	52.0%	-0.2%
West Brom	180	308	36.9%	182	296	38.1%	1.2%
West Ham	228	309	42.5%	232	307	43.0%	0.5%

1st Half of Season (Matches 1-19)

Team	Total Shots For	Total Shots Against	TSR%	Schedule Adjusted Shots For	Schedule Adjusted Shot Against	Sched Adj TSR%	Dif
Arsenal	319	192	62.4%	317	191	62.4%	-0.0%
Aston Villa	189	273	40.9%	186	269	40.9%	-0.0%
Burnley	215	304	41.4%	217	305	41.6%	0.2%
Chelsea	309	193	61.6%	299	196	60.4%	-1.2%
Crystal Palace	204	256	44.3%	204	257	44.3%	-0.1%
Everton	247	247	50.0%	250	246	50.4%	0.4%
Hull	189	286	39.8%	188	280	40.2%	0.4%
Leicester	211	301	41.2%	215	300	41.7%	0.5%
Liverpool	293	215	57.7%	301	221	57.6%	-0.1%
Man City	320	205	61.0%	320	209	60.6%	-0.4%
Man United	246	209	54.1%	246	206	54.4%	0.4%
Newcastle	236	233	50.3%	235	233	50.2%	-0.1%
QPR	269	293	47.9%	273	298	47.7%	-0.1%
Southampton	253	173	59.4%	248	173	58.9%	-0.5%
Stoke	254	244	51.0%	250	242	50.8%	-0.2%
Sunderland	214	277	43.6%	218	276	44.2%	0.6%
Swansea	209	269	43.7%	213	265	44.6%	0.8%
Tottenham	252	238	51.4%	250	242	50.8%	-0.6%
West Brom	233	238	49.5%	232	237	49.5%	-0.0%
West Ham	259	275	48.5%	258	274	48.5%	0.0%