EPL 11v11 Advanced On-Pitch Player Stats


2014-15

2015-16 Updated April 7, 2016

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Friday, 29 May 2015

End of Season Look at Schedule Adjusted Total Shots

This is a method designed by Micah McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) for weighting schedule strength in the National Hockey League (NHL) using Total Shots (Corsi).  The method is described in full detail in the following link.  https://hockeygraphsdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/scheduleadjust.pdf

I was interested in how it would look using raw Total Shots For/Against from the Premier League.

End of season notes:

With the Premiership playing a balanced schedule (unlike North American sports leagues), I didn't know if Schedule Adjusted TSR would be that much different from raw TSR. Turns out, that in the end, Schedule Adjusting did little to alter raw TSR.

It is a weird year for in-season repeatability of raw TSR. R-squared of '1st half vs 2nd half' is way down to ~0.40 this year. A vast decline of the previous 5 season avg (~0.75).  TSR still maintained a high correlation to Goal Difference (r squared of ~.71).

Schedule Adjusted TSR did poorer in predicting itself than raw TSR. R-squared of ~0.37. While, versus Goal Difference, it slightly edges raw TSR, with a r squared of ~.72.

Given these results, I will probably not track Sched Adj Total Shots next season. Given the small value it adds to explaining goal difference I do not think it is worth the time I spend inputing the data.

I am glad I did it but I will appreciate using the extra 1 1/2 hrs per week it took to track and organize, on other things :)

Cheers,
Clarke

Here are the Schedule Adjusted TSR results (compiled using www.whoscored.com):

Season Totals (Matches 1-38)
Team Total Shots
For
Total Shots
Against
TSR% Schedule Adjusted
Shots For
Schedule Adjusted
Shots Against
Sched Adj
TSR%
Dif
Arsenal 608 406 60.0% 600 410 59.4% -0.6%
Aston Villa 415 481 46.3% 410 475 46.3% -0.0%
Burnley 430 591 42.1% 439 590 42.7% 0.5%
Chelsea 564 415 57.6% 552 421 56.7% -0.9%
Crystal Palace 440 526 45.5% 446 525 45.9% 0.4%
Everton 483 503 49.0% 482 499 49.1% 0.2%
Hull 434 503 46.3% 436 496 46.8% 0.4%
Leicester 457 557 45.1% 459 554 45.3% 0.2%
Liverpool 584 419 58.2% 581 430 57.5% -0.8%
Man City 670 384 63.6% 658 392 62.7% -0.9%
Man United 513 386 57.1% 506 387 56.6% -0.4%
Newcastle 466 442 51.3% 470 448 51.2% -0.1%
QPR 534 621 46.2% 545 633 46.2% 0.0%
Southampton 510 384 57.0% 505 386 56.7% -0.3%
Stoke 503 455 52.5% 501 454 52.4% -0.1%
Sunderland 409 625 39.6% 420 612 40.7% 1.1%
Swansea 427 551 43.7% 431 542 44.3% 0.7%
Tottenham 526 489 51.8% 530 495 51.7% -0.1%
West Brom 413 546 43.1% 414 534 43.7% 0.6%
West Ham 487 589 45.3% 490 589 45.4% 0.1%

2nd half of Season (Matches 20-38)
Team Total Shots
For
Total Shots
Against
TSR% Schedule Adjusted
Shots For
Schedule Adjusted
Shots Against
Sched Adj
TSR%
Dif
Arsenal 289 214 57.5% 282 218 56.4% -1.0%
Aston Villa 226 208 52.1% 224 206 52.1% 0.0%
Burnley 215 287 42.8% 222 286 43.7% 0.9%
Chelsea 255 222 53.5% 253 227 52.7% -0.8%
Crystal Palace 236 270 46.6% 240 268 47.2% 0.6%
Everton 236 256 48.0% 234 253 48.1% 0.1%
Hull 240 217 52.5% 241 216 52.7% 0.2%
Leicester 246 256 49.0% 246 255 49.1% 0.1%
Liverpool 294 199 59.6% 285 203 58.4% -1.2%
Man City 350 182 65.8% 335 184 64.6% -1.2%
Man United 262 177 59.7% 255 181 58.5% -1.2%
Newcastle 230 209 52.4% 232 213 52.2% -0.2%
QPR 264 328 44.6% 271 336 44.6% 0.0%
Southampton 256 211 54.8% 257 214 54.6% -0.2%
Stoke 249 211 54.1% 252 216 53.9% -0.3%
Sunderland 195 347 36.0% 202 335 37.6% 1.6%
Swansea 218 281 43.7% 222 275 44.6% 0.9%
Tottenham 274 251 52.2% 277 255 52.0% -0.2%
West Brom 180 308 36.9% 182 296 38.1% 1.2%
West Ham 228 309 42.5% 232 307 43.0% 0.5%

1st Half of Season (Matches 1-19)
Team Total Shots
For
Total Shots
Against
TSR% Schedule Adjusted
Shots For
Schedule Adjusted
Shot Against
Sched Adj
TSR%
Dif
Arsenal 319 192 62.4% 317 191 62.4% -0.0%
Aston Villa 189 273 40.9% 186 269 40.9% -0.0%
Burnley 215 304 41.4% 217 305 41.6% 0.2%
Chelsea 309 193 61.6% 299 196 60.4% -1.2%
Crystal Palace 204 256 44.3% 204 257 44.3% -0.1%
Everton 247 247 50.0% 250 246 50.4% 0.4%
Hull 189 286 39.8% 188 280 40.2% 0.4%
Leicester 211 301 41.2% 215 300 41.7% 0.5%
Liverpool 293 215 57.7% 301 221 57.6% -0.1%
Man City 320 205 61.0% 320 209 60.6% -0.4%
Man United 246 209 54.1% 246 206 54.4% 0.4%
Newcastle 236 233 50.3% 235 233 50.2% -0.1%
QPR 269 293 47.9% 273 298 47.7% -0.1%
Southampton 253 173 59.4% 248 173 58.9% -0.5%
Stoke 254 244 51.0% 250 242 50.8% -0.2%
Sunderland 214 277 43.6% 218 276 44.2% 0.6%
Swansea 209 269 43.7% 213 265 44.6% 0.8%
Tottenham 252 238 51.4% 250 242 50.8% -0.6%
West Brom 233 238 49.5% 232 237 49.5% -0.0%
West Ham 259 275 48.5% 258 274 48.5% 0.0%

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